Energy Shift
2024 U.S. Clean Electricity Outlook
The following content is sponsored by the National Public Utilities Council
2024 U.S. Clean Electricity Outlook
As the world urgently seeks sustainable energy solutions, the U.S. has the opportunity to lead the charge in the shift toward clean electricity.
But what kind of progress can the country expect in the upcoming year?
To find out, we partnered with the National Public Utilities Council to visualize the projected 2024 electricity generation capacity of clean energy technologies in the U.S., using data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The Rise of Battery Storage and Solar Power
Looking ahead to 2024, U.S. generation capacity projections unveil a promising trajectory for battery storage and solar power. Battery storage is projected to grow by 82% compared to 2023 estimates, while solar is projected to grow by 40%.
Wind power is also growing, albeit at a slower rate (5%) due to higher costs and permitting challenges, especially for offshore projects.
Electricity Generation Capacity Projections | 2023 | 2024 | Change |
---|---|---|---|
Battery Storage | 17 GW | 31 GW | +82% |
Solar | 93 GW | 130 GW | +40% |
Wind | 149 GW | 156 GW | +5% |
Nuclear | 96 GW | 97 GW | +1% |
Geothermal | 3 GW | 3 GW | 0% |
Hydro | 80 GW | 80 GW | 0% |
As illustrated in the table above, the EIA projects a modest year for the rest of the major clean electricity sources in the nation, with nuclear expected to eke out a lackluster 1% growth, while hydro and geothermal remain unchanged.
Overall, these projections underscore a diversification of the U.S. energy portfolio, with a pronounced emphasis on renewables and energy storage. The growth in battery storage capacity, specifically, underscores efforts to overcome the intermittency challenges of renewables, ultimately ensuring a reliable and emission-free power supply in the country.
The Broader U.S. Power Sector in 2024
Beyond capacity projections, let’s also take a look at some projected trends related to the broader U.S. power sector in 2024.
- U.S. daily electricity generation is projected to grow by 3% between 2023 and 2024, reflecting an increasing demand for power in the country.
- Renewables are set to claim an even larger slice of the U.S. electricity mix in 2024, rising from 22% in 2023 to 24%.
- Electricity production from coal is projected to decline by 9% as the country continues its move away from this emission-intensive energy source.
- Despite the country’s projected growth in clean electricity capacity, total U.S. energy-related emissions are projected to drop by 0.1% in 2024.
All in all, the 2024 landscape of the U.S. power sector signifies progress with increased renewables and heightened electricity generation. However, the marginal dip in emissions emphasizes the need to ramp-up country-wide efforts to meet the goal of a net-zero future.
Learn how the National Public Utilities Council is working toward the future of sustainable electricity.
Energy Shift
Ranked: Energy Transition Scores by Country in 2024
This bar chart shows the countries’ highest and lowest energy transition index scores determined by the World Economic Forum.
Ranked: Energy Transition Scores by Country in 2024
The World Economic Forum (WEF) recently unveiled their 2024 Energy Transition Report, which assesses 120 countries around the world on their decarbonization efforts and ranks them on their Energy Transition Index (ETI).
This visualization, created in partnership with the National Public Utilities Council, shows the top 10 and bottom 10 countries based on their ETI scores.
How Does the ETI Work?
The ETI is a weighted average of two sub-indexes, system performance (60%) and transition readiness (40%), that rates countries on 46 indicators, including regulation and political engagement, innovation, and infrastructure.
Since the launch of the ETI in 2015, the global average increased from 53.4 to 56.8. However, momentum has slowed recently, and is down 0.3 points since 2022, due to the consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and surging inflation interest rates.
The Rankings
The highest energy transition scores come from advanced economies and the top three are Sweden, Denmark, and Finland. The lowest scores, however, come from sub-Saharan Africa.
Rank | Country | ETI Score |
---|---|---|
1 | 🇸🇪Sweden | 78.4 |
2 | 🇩🇰Denmark | 75.2 |
3 | 🇫🇮Finland | 74.5 |
4 | 🇨🇭Switzerland | 73.4 |
5 | 🇫🇷France | 71.1 |
6 | 🇳🇴Norway | 69.9 |
7 | 🇮🇸Iceland | 68 |
8 | 🇦🇹Austria | 67.9 |
9 | 🇪🇪Estonia | 67.8 |
10 | 🇳🇱Netherlands | 66.7 |
11 | 🇩🇪Germany | 66.5 |
12 | 🇧🇷Brazil | 65.7 |
13 | 🇬🇧United Kingdom | 65.6 |
14 | 🇵🇹Portugal | 65.4 |
15 | 🇱🇻Latvia | 65.2 |
16 | 🇪🇸Spain | 64.3 |
17 | 🇨🇳China | 64.1 |
18 | 🇱🇺Luxembourg | 64.1 |
19 | 🇺🇸United States | 64 |
20 | 🇨🇱Chile | 63.9 |
21 | 🇮🇱Israel | 63.8 |
22 | 🇦🇺Australia | 63.7 |
23 | 🇰🇷South Korea | 63.5 |
24 | 🇱🇹Lithuania | 63.2 |
25 | 🇳🇿New Zealand | 62.8 |
26 | 🇯🇵Japan | 62.4 |
27 | 🇨🇦Canada | 62.4 |
28 | 🇭🇺Hungary | 62.1 |
29 | 🇸🇮Slovenia | 61.9 |
30 | 🇨🇷Costa Rica | 61.3 |
31 | 🇵🇱Poland | 61.3 |
32 | 🇻🇳Vietnam | 61 |
33 | 🇺🇾Uruguay | 60.8 |
34 | 🇧🇪Belgium | 60.8 |
35 | 🇨🇴Colombia | 60.7 |
36 | 🇧🇬Bulgaria | 60.6 |
37 | 🇬🇷Greece | 60.5 |
38 | 🇦🇿Azerbaijan | 60.3 |
39 | 🇭🇷Croatia | 60.1 |
40 | 🇲🇾Malaysia | 60.1 |
41 | 🇮🇹Italy | 59.7 |
42 | 🇵🇾Paraguay | 59.6 |
43 | 🇦🇱Albania | 59.4 |
44 | 🇨🇿Czechia | 59.2 |
45 | 🇮🇪Ireland | 58.7 |
46 | 🇸🇻El Salvador | 58.4 |
47 | 🇵🇪Peru | 58.3 |
48 | 🇷🇴Romania | 58.3 |
49 | 🇸🇰Slovakia | 57.5 |
50 | 🇶🇦Qatar | 57.3 |
51 | 🇵🇦Panama | 57.1 |
52 | 🇦🇪United Arab Emirates | 57 |
53 | 🇲🇺Mauritius | 56.8 |
54 | 🇮🇩Indonesia | 56.7 |
55 | 🇨🇾Cyprus | 56.6 |
56 | 🇬🇪Georgia | 56.3 |
57 | 🇲🇽Mexico | 56.3 |
58 | 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia | 55.9 |
59 | 🇹🇷Türkiye | 55.8 |
60 | 🇹🇭Thailand | 55.8 |
61 | 🇲🇹Malta | 55.6 |
62 | 🇴🇲Oman | 55.5 |
63 | 🇮🇳India | 55.3 |
64 | 🇸🇬Singapore | 55 |
65 | 🇲🇦Morocco | 54.9 |
66 | 🇧🇴Bolivia | 54.8 |
67 | 🇲🇪Montenegro | 54.6 |
68 | 🇳🇦Namibia | 54.5 |
69 | 🇱🇰Sri Lanka | 54.2 |
70 | 🇰🇪Kenya | 53.6 |
71 | 🇹🇯Tajikistan | 53.6 |
72 | 🇱🇦Laos | 53.5 |
73 | 🇯🇴Jordan | 53.5 |
74 | 🇪🇨Ecuador | 53.2 |
75 | 🇪🇬Egypt | 53 |
76 | 🇺🇦Ukraine | 52.9 |
77 | 🇰🇭Cambodia | 52.9 |
78 | 🇷🇸Serbia | 52.9 |
79 | 🇦🇲Armenia | 52.7 |
80 | 🇰🇬Kyrgyzstan | 52.7 |
81 | 🇲🇰North Macedonia | 52.6 |
82 | 🇦🇷Argentina | 52.6 |
83 | 🇬🇦Gabon | 52.5 |
84 | 🇿🇦South Africa | 52.4 |
85 | 🇱🇧Lebanon | 52 |
86 | 🇦🇴Angola | 52 |
87 | 🇪🇹Ethiopia | 51.7 |
88 | 🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina | 51.5 |
89 | 🇹🇳Tunisia | 51.3 |
90 | 🇨🇮Côte d'Ivoire | 51.2 |
91 | 🇩🇿Algeria | 50.9 |
92 | 🇬🇭Ghana | 50.9 |
93 | 🇿🇲Zambia | 50.9 |
94 | 🇬🇹Guatemala | 50.8 |
95 | 🇻🇪Venezuela | 50.4 |
96 | 🇧🇳Brunei | 50.3 |
97 | 🇩🇴Dominican Republic | 50.1 |
98 | 🇰🇿Kazakhstan | 50.1 |
99 | 🇹🇹Trinidad and Tobago | 49.7 |
100 | 🇳🇵Nepal | 49.6 |
101 | 🇨🇲Cameroon | 49.2 |
102 | 🇮🇷Iran | 49 |
103 | 🇧🇭Bahrain | 48.8 |
104 | 🇰🇼Kuwait | 48.6 |
105 | 🇵🇭Philippines | 48.4 |
106 | 🇭🇳Honduras | 48.3 |
107 | 🇲🇩Moldova | 48.1 |
108 | 🇳🇬Nigeria | 46.9 |
109 | 🇧🇩Bangladesh | 46.8 |
110 | 🇯🇲Jamaica | 46.6 |
111 | 🇸🇳Senegal | 46.6 |
112 | 🇿🇼Zimbabwe | 46.3 |
113 | 🇵🇰Pakistan | 46.2 |
114 | 🇳🇮Nicaragua | 46 |
115 | 🇧🇼Botswana | 45.6 |
116 | 🇲🇳Mongolia | 45.4 |
117 | 🇲🇿Mozambique | 45.3 |
118 | 🇹🇿Tanzania | 44.3 |
119 | 🇾🇪Yemen | 43.8 |
120 | 🇨🇩DRC | 42 |
However, even though sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest regional average score, individual countries are making significant progress. For example, Zimbabwe’s score has increased 33% since 2015, thanks to the increase in their hydropower capacity.
On the other hand, the ETIs of some advanced economies are declining, such as Norway, whose score decreased by 0.4 points over the past nine years. This decrease is due to rising electricity prices and a decline in renewable capacity buildout.
The Largest Economies and the Future
The world’s largest economy, the United States, has remained at 64.0 over the past year. China, however, has moved ahead to 64.1 from 2023 to 2024, thanks to significant growth in areas like batteries, EVs, and high-voltage transmission. The country also allocates the largest share of its GDP to investments in renewables, at 9%.
All countries must dramatically increase their ETI scores to prevent global warming above 1.5 degrees Celsius. While many countries, such as Norway, are stagnating in their progress, others, such as Zimbabwe, exceed expectations for their wealth, signaling the possibility for all countries to meet their climate targets.
Learn how the National Public Utilities Council is working toward the future of sustainable electricity.
Energy Shift
Mapped: The Age of Energy Projects in Interconnection Queues, by State
This map shows how many energy projects are in interconnection queues by state and how long these projects have been queued up, on average.
U.S. Energy Projects in Interconnection Queues, by State
By the end of 2023, more than 11,000 energy projects were in interconnection queues in the United States, waiting for a green-light from regional grid operators to proceed with construction.
This map, sponsored by the National Public Utilities Council, maps out the average age of active energy projects in interconnection queues by state, using data from Berkeley Lab.
Interconnection Queues, Explained
Interconnection queues are lists of energy projects that have made interconnection requests to their regional grid operators. Once submitted, these requests formally initiate the impact study process that each project goes through before grid connection, forming waiting lists for approval known as interconnection queues.
In recent years, both the number and generation capacity of queued projects have surged in the United States, along with the length of time spent in queue.
According to Berkeley Lab, the amount of generation capacity entering queues each year has risen by more than 550% from 2015 to 2023, with average queue duration rising from 3 years to 5 years the same period.
As a result of the growing backlog, a large proportion of projects ultimately withdraw from queues, leading to only 19% of applications reaching commercial operations.
The Backlog: Number of Projects and Average Wait Times
Of the 11,000 active projects in U.S. queues at the end of 2023, Texas, California, and Virginia had the most in queue; 1,208, 947, and 743, respectively.
When looking at the average ages of these projects, all three states hovered around the national average of 34 months (2.83 years), with Texas sporting 28 months, California 33, and Virginia 34.
Vermont, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Florida, on the other hand, had the highest average queue durations; 54, 49, 47, and 46 months, respectively.
Average Queue Duration by Project Type
At the end of 2023, more than 95% of the generation capacity in active interconnection queues was for emission-free resources. The table below provides a breakdown.
Project Type | Average Queue Duration (As of 12/31/2023) | Number of Projects in Queue |
---|---|---|
Wind | 40 months | 841 |
Solar | 34 months | 4,506 |
Wind+Battery | 34 months | 76 |
Solar+Battery | 27 months | 2,377 |
Battery | 24 months | 2,818 |
Wind projects had the highest wait times at the end of 2023 with an average age of 40 months (3.33 years). Solar projects, on the other hand, made up more than 40% of projects in queue.
Overall, reducing the time that these renewable energy projects spend in queues can accelerate the transition to a low-carbon energy future.
According to the U.S. Department of Energy, enhancing data transparency, streamlining approval processes, promoting economic efficiency, and maintaining a reliable grid are some of the ways this growing backlog can be mitigated.
Learn how the National Public Utilities Council is working toward the future of sustainable electricity.
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